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Ukraine faces a difficult winter as Russian air attacks intensify and shortages of Patriot interceptor missiles leave it struggling to protect civilian infrastructure, Marko Mihkelson tells ERR in an interview. How would you assess Ukraine's situation right now?
Ukraine is certainly heading into a very difficult fall and winter. Daily news from across the country shows that Russia has launched a massive campaign of aerial terror against all of Ukraine.
The targets include the capital and many other Ukrainian cities, all the way to the western border. As Ukrainian intelligence has determined in recent days, Russia's aim is to completely destroy Ukraine's civilian infrastructure capacity to withstand the winter. It is targeting energy supplies, data centers, water supplies and sewage systems. As we saw in the recent attacks on Kyiv where hospitals and buildings belonging to the Academy of Sciences were hit, the targets are wide-ranging.
A clear problem for Ukraine right now is its limited air defense capability, specifically because it is short of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems. Another major problem is the jet-powered Geran-5 drones Russia is using with Chinese support. They are being used extensively and causing a great deal of destruction. What can Ukraine do to defend itself in the current situation?
It is certainly crucial to obtain the air defense weapons it needs from allies and partners as quickly as possible, above all interceptor missiles for Patriot systems from the United States and other allied and partner countries that have them in storage.
The other issue is the need to develop a capability to intercept jet-powered drones as quickly as possible. Several projects are underway, but Ukraine currently has no working solution. How long could that development take?
When I met Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, in September, he said it could take three to four months. That is, of course, a fairly critical period for Ukraine. Those interception systems will certainly be developed, but for now Russia has a clear advantage in the air.
The shortage of Patriot systems has been known about for a long time. How could the situation be resolved and are there ways to do it?
There are faster and slower solutions. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also raised the possibility of producing Patriot systems in Ukraine under license when he met Donald Trump in the United States. But it would take years before production delivered any real benefit.
Right now, it is vital that the United States and everyone else able to produce interceptor missiles increase their production capacity. Even more important is a contribution from countries that already have the missiles in storage. Greece and some other countries, for example, should either sell or give them to Ukraine. We see every day that Russian attacks on civilians are intensifying and Russia hopes to bring Ukraine to its knees over the winter. As Ukrainians have repeatedly shown over the years, they will not give up, however hard things get. The subject of trilateral talks has come up again recently. Why now?
Ukraine faces a difficult winter as Russian air attacks intensify and shortages of Patriot interceptor missiles leave it struggling to protect civilian infrastructure, Marko Mihkelson tells ERR in an interview.